@Article{FonsecaAAAARSA:2019:EfClLa,
author = "Fonseca, Marisa Gesteira and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Aguiar, Ana
Paula Dutra and Arai, Egidio and Anderson, Liana Oighenstein and
Rosan, Thais Michele and Shimabukuro, Yosio Edemir and
Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas
de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)}",
title = "Effects of climate and land\‐use change scenarios on fire
probability during the 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon",
journal = "Global Change Biology",
year = "2019",
volume = "25",
number = "9",
pages = "2931--2946",
month = "Sept.",
note = "{Pr{\^e}mio CAPES Elsevier 2023 - ODS 15: Vida terrestre}",
keywords = "fire modeling, forest degradation, hot pixels, maximum entropy,
representative concentration pathway, tropical forest.",
abstract = "The joint and relative effects of future land-use and climate
change on fire occurrence in the Amazon, as well its seasonal
variation, are still poorly understood, despite its recognized
importance. Using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt), we combined
regional land-use projections and climatic data from the CMIP5
multimodel ensemble to investigate the monthly probability of fire
occurrence in the mid (2041-2070) and late (2071-2100) 21st
century in the Brazilian Amazon. We found striking spatial
variation in the fire relative probability (FRP) change along the
months, with October showing the highest overall change.
Considering climate only, the area with FRP >= 0.3 (a threshold
chosen based on the literature) in October increases 6.9% by
2071-2100 compared to the baseline period under the representative
concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 27.7% under the RCP 8.5. The
best-case land-use scenario ({"}Sustainability{"}) alone causes a
10.6% increase in the area with FRP >= 0.3, while the worse-case
land-use scenario ({"}Fragmentation{"}) causes a 73.2% increase.
The optimistic climate-land-use projection (Sustainability and RCP
4.5) causes a 21.3% increase in the area with FRP >= 0.3 in
October by 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period. In contrast,
the most pessimistic climate-land-use projection (Fragmentation
and RCP 8.5) causes a widespread increase in FRP (113.5% increase
in the area with FRP >= 0.3), and prolongs the fire season,
displacing its peak. Combining the Sustainability land-use and RCP
8.5 scenarios causes a 39.1% increase in the area with FRP >= 0.3.
We conclude that avoiding the regress on land-use governance in
the Brazilian Amazon (i.e., decrease in the extension and level of
conservation of the protected areas, reduced environmental laws
enforcement, extensive road paving, and increased deforestation)
would substantially mitigate the effects of climate change on fire
probability, even under the most pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario.",
doi = "10.1111/gcb.14709",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14709",
issn = "1354-1013",
language = "en",
targetfile = "Fonseca_et_al-2019-Global_Change_Biology.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "04 maio 2024"
}